Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Southern IL ...Far Southwest IN....Far Eastern KY
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...
Valid 102233Z - 110000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gust will continue across
southern IL as the convective line surges eastward. The need for a
downstream watch is currently unlikely, but convective trends will
be monitored closely.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a trend towards faster
eastward progression of the convective cluster currently ongoing
across southern IL. This quicker eastward progression suggests the
cluster has transitioned to a more cold pool driven convective line.
Recent storm motion is estimated to be around 33 kt within the most
progressive portion of the line moving into Jefferson and Franklin
Echo tops and MESH cores suggest these updrafts are not overly
strong, limiting the hail potential. Even so, strong downdrafts and
the surging cold pool will continue to produce damaging wind gusts.
At its current speed, the line is expected reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365 by 00Z. The need for a downstream watch is
unlikely, given current storm trends and air mass stabilization from
ongoing storms over the region. Nevertheless, trends will be
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