• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1246

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 22:34:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102233
    SPC MCD 102233=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1246
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...Southern IL ...Far Southwest IN....Far Eastern KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

    Valid 102233Z - 110000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gust will continue across
    southern IL as the convective line surges eastward. The need for a
    downstream watch is currently unlikely, but convective trends will
    be monitored closely.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a trend towards faster
    eastward progression of the convective cluster currently ongoing
    across southern IL. This quicker eastward progression suggests the
    cluster has transitioned to a more cold pool driven convective line.
    Recent storm motion is estimated to be around 33 kt within the most
    progressive portion of the line moving into Jefferson and Franklin

    Echo tops and MESH cores suggest these updrafts are not overly
    strong, limiting the hail potential. Even so, strong downdrafts and
    the surging cold pool will continue to produce damaging wind gusts.
    At its current speed, the line is expected reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365 by 00Z. The need for a downstream watch is
    unlikely, given current storm trends and air mass stabilization from
    ongoing storms over the region. Nevertheless, trends will be
    monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o58dkWkzE4YKLD72aOtVgQdXhD1r_Ubh6ZYZsmyhx6_DnnrD4r2LQAfTvsHNomiAhVZTqZd-$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38378925 38868857 38618743 37888725 37398791 37428875
    37848969 38018980 38378925=20

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