• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1245

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 22:28:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102227=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1245
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...

    Valid 102227Z - 110030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms along the Missouri River will
    continue southeast into a slightly more favorable environment for
    damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. Local extensions in area
    of WW 366 may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of thunderstorm complexes overnight
    yesterday into this morning, airmass recovery has continued this
    afternoon in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures have
    risen in the low to mid 80s F, which is slightly higher than
    RAP/HRRR forecast guidance has shown. As such MLCAPE may a bit
    higher in some locations than the objectively analyzed 2000-2500
    J/kg. As the line of convection continues to the southeast, the
    environment will be more supportive of damaging wind gusts as well
    as large hail. A few storms have tried to develop ahead of the line
    and these more discrete storms would pose the greatest large hail
    risk. Storms should be maintained with forcing from the mid-level
    shortwave and associated deep-layer shear. With storms nearing the
    edge of WW 366, local extensions in area may be needed to address
    the continue threat for severe storms this afternoon into the early
    evening.

    ..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u3xm365LUD8UGPr7XEeNopRnSMcZK5lznW57MyvGCKyOPG_W5psnMeVfoBIkwwB8-ivCXWgz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39699687 39909665 40459524 40519421 40209349 39499341
    38949385 38719480 38649549 38809617 38889642 39129668
    39699687=20



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