• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 21:49:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102148=20
    AZZ000-102345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...Central and southeastern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102148Z - 102345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are continuing develop along the Mogollon Rim and
    Gila Mountains. As these storms are beginning to move off the
    terrain, a threat for strong to severe wind gusts is increasing for
    the lower deserts. A WW is possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures in the lower deserts of central/southern
    Arizona have risen to 105-110 F while maintaining upper 50s to low
    60s F dewpoints. A cluster of storms has developed within the Gila
    mountains and has shown a tendency to move southwestward off the
    terrain given 25-30 kts of cloud-bearing shear. The 13Z observed PHX
    sounding sampled 1.61 inches PWAT with very steep mid-level lapse
    rates. Further development is possible along other portions of the
    Mogollon Rim as well as within southeastern Arizona. A cluster or
    two of thunderstorms is expected to evolve this afternoon and
    evening. Some MLCIN is still being objectively analyzed, but cold
    pool development should help parcels reach their LFC and continue to
    propagate southwestward. Steep lapse rates through the lower
    troposphere will promote strong to severe wind gusts. Though
    clustering will likely occur quickly, discrete activity will pose a
    marginally severe hail threat. A WW is possible this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYLAetN4LAqR6GED1c7yyCzf-Mv-y15MfqnHxCTI374IOfiK2DUQKuF_OriBq9mX7FzyfcDC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33241208 33651249 34341225 34391153 34231026 33670934
    33060925 32040942 31551003 31531075 31631097 33241208=20



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