• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1242

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 20:10:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102009=20
    ILZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1242
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102009Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An additional brief tornado or two remains possible with
    the longer lasting, more dominant updrafts over the next couple of
    hours. The very brief, localized nature of the severe threat
    precludes a WW issuance at this time, though trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An MCV has recently developed across west-central IL in association with the remnants of an older MCS that has propagated
    out of MO earlier this morning. A few discrete supercells have
    developed in close proximity to the MCV center, including a
    relatively more dominant supercell with a history of brief tornadoes
    over the past 1-2 hours. Ahead of the MCV cluster, locally backed
    surface winds have been noted, which are likely locally enhancing
    low-level shear, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, as shown by the
    1918Z KILX VWP.=20

    Nonetheless, buoyancy is quite scant, with well under 500 J/kg
    MLCAPE present ahead of the MCV. In addition, precipitation and
    clouds ahead of the MCV will continue to hinder more robust surface
    heating and subsequent instability from manifesting. As such, the
    tornado threat is expected to remain relatively limited overall,
    with a brief tornado or two likely with the most dominant storms. A
    WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continued to be
    monitored for an increase in the tornado threat.

    ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q0Ih-8cddLGSAgERso-2Hc58RRSIHB6hWrekHzEh8NqyXpM7PCUzzb-HJ0iYWmAp-174-3cA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40289035 40518997 40738922 40798861 40568797 40208779
    39798798 39638858 39698947 39808999 39859036 40289035=20



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