• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1241

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 20:05:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102005=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-102200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1241
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102005Z - 102200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in an increasingly unstable
    environment. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
    will be possible. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed within a
    strongly unstable environment with most-unstable CAPE values between
    1500-2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is fairly week across the region,
    mostly at or below 30 knots, and mid-level lapse rates are generally
    less than 6 C/km. The result of which should act to limit widespread
    wind or hail potential, especially in the absence of strong forcing
    for ascent. However, given the very moist conditions and strong
    instability, a isolated threat for marginally severe hail and a wet
    microburst exists. A watch is not currently expected.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uJOFVm1D2hFee7FQ-anSbnWxxgOEd_nYQcPXmJ3UCcCMNxblOd1GISAO-8F3UwunQLldUnVF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

    LAT...LON 36788661 37288675 37778553 38078369 37798251 37338202
    36748188 36728390 36788661=20



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