• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1240

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 19:18:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101917
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101917=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-102115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1240
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...much of Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and northwest
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101917Z - 102115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
    across the region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
    threat, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A watch will
    likely be needed by 4 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A surface cold front across southwest Kansas is slowly
    moving southeast this afternoon with an effective stationary front
    extending from south-central into northeast Kansas. Along and south
    of this frontal zone, diurnal heating has contributed to a very
    unstable airmass as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s F to
    lower 90s F with surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 70s F. As this
    heating continues, surface-based inhibition will erode and several
    clusters of thunderstorms will develop. Initial development --
    likely before 21Z -- should occur across eastern Kansas within the aforementioned frontal zone, with additional development later this
    afternoon farther southwest across Oklahoma.

    Surface-based CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates
    between 7 and 8 C/km, and effective-layer shear between 40-50 knots
    will combine to support thunderstorms capable of large hail and
    damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Given the degree of instability
    and effective-layer shear, a tornado or two will be possible with thunderstorms, especially early in their life cycle when they remain
    more discrete and may pose supercellular characteristics. With time,
    congealing thunderstorm cold pools and outflows will promote upscale
    growth into one or more south-southeast moving linear MCSs, with the
    primary severe hazard transitioning to more of a widespread wind
    damage potential.

    A watch will likely be needed across portions of this area by
    21Z/4PM CDT.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vI3Not5HvnPDVDByJZ5xHu7jOCtYcnr8UTPbuEwOKPrpJeX08eDkQP7H-1UhSbUPSi9-IixR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 35409937 37139858 37809734 38039598 37989467 37869429
    36479369 35409376 34699587 34619926 35409937=20



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