• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1239

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 18:33:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101833
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101832=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-102030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1239
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into eastern West Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101832Z - 102030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...At least a few damaging gusts remain possible over the
    next few hours. However, the spatial coverage of severe winds is
    expected to be relatively low overall and a Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KRLX radar data depict a small but
    highly organized MCS propagating across central WV, with
    semi-discrete storms exhibiting occasional transient supercell
    structures to the south of the bowing complex (some with a history
    of tree damage).=20

    30-35 kts of effective bulk shear is evident across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic regions based on 18Z mesoanalysis, with the
    shear vectors orthogonal to the MCS. The bowing-structure MCS and
    nearby transient supercells are expected to remain organized through
    the mid afternoon hours. Nonetheless, buoyancy is marginal, with
    generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE noted (fueled primarily by 7-8
    C/km low-level lapse rates). The KRLX showed mainly 30-40 kts of
    leading-line flow about 200-500 ft AGL, and significant
    intensification is not expected. As such, gusty winds may accompany
    the stronger storms/bowing segments, and while a few severe gusts
    cannot be ruled out, the lack of more widespread damaging wind
    potential suggests a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not needed.

    ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oJYS7Pwp7y2BZgeUwN1uAa4644oJF3kMAqtKfXU3VvJNyLPgqapKJTXguNd6J2uyMkKgvxb6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

    LAT...LON 37428203 38218197 38628178 38818112 38808029 38787975
    38727964 38527962 38087986 37628046 37368109 37198153
    37198155 37428203=20



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