• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1238

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 18:26:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101825
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101825=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-102030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1238
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...southern Missouri...southern Illinois...and western
    Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101825Z - 102030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop
    through the mid afternoon. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm
    winds will be the primary threat, although a tornado or two cannot
    be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield continues to wane in
    coverage early this afternoon across south-central Missouri.
    Furthermore, the associated cloud cover continues to thin -- with
    breaks in the coverage identified across southeast Missouri. These
    breaks in the cloud cover have allowed surface temperatures to warm
    into the upper 80s F in the presence of surface dewpoints in the
    low-to-mid 70s F, yielding surface-based CAPE between 2000-3000
    J/kg. As temperatures warm and surface inhibition diminishes,
    multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
    south of a front stretching from central Kansas east into central
    Illinois. Although the better deep-layer shear is confined to Kansas
    and southwest Missouri, it should be sufficiently strong along and
    near the front to support updraft organization, with large hail and
    damaging thunderstorm winds possible. With time merging thunderstorm
    cold pools and outflows should result in upscale growth into one or
    more MCSs that move south, posing a more widespread damaging wind
    threat. Before the eventual upscale growth, a tornado or two cannot
    be ruled out with discrete cells interacting with with front or
    other outflow boundaries.

    Given the likelihood of multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms
    this afternoon, one or more watches will likely be needed across the
    area.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qau7itaBbuf3rP5Ox5E9A01YRfTGxLcxpj3nwilTJffggZVc5aIRBqDEuETtv7BP0hbEQhQM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36679313 36739406 37269439 37869395 38229163 38628993
    38888825 38768736 38128700 37148751 36668870 36658978
    36679313=20



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