• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1237

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 18:21:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101820=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1237
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska...Southwestern
    Iowa...Northwestern Missouri...and Northeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101820Z - 102015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity and
    organization this afternoon as they move south-southeastward across
    the area. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility
    of a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Disorganized convection, associated with a midlevel
    shortwave trough, has moved into northeastern Nebraska and
    northwestern Iowa this afternoon. Relatively cool midlevel
    temperatures (<-10C) and surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s F
    are contributing to moderate instability around 1500 J/kg in the
    presence of effective bulk shear less than 25 knots. As the storms
    move south-southeastward, they should encounter better shear
    (despite shear weakening overall with time as the trough also shifts southward), which may promote better updraft organization. These
    storms will primarily pose a threat for severe hail, but a damaging
    wind gust may also be possible if multicell clusters evolve.

    ..Jirak/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rrJOiJ0pY6D8caghhIjTbCfiAdzVCT5GAUJyR-JXmD20bj0puhD8-M3uGVtEHzdrgM_in_bE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40799806 41089779 41339712 41469660 41459616 41289538
    40979485 40459457 40039464 39709483 39539509 39419552
    39429638 39629725 40039777 40799806=20



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