• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1236

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 16:37:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101637
    SPC MCD 101637=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1236
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...extreme northeast Oklahoma...southern
    Missouri...and northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101637Z - 101800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across northeast Oklahoma and
    northwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will be possible in the
    near term. Longer-term severe potential with these storms is more

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have developed rapidly across
    Deleware County, OK, this morning in response to warm-air advection
    in the 850-700 millibar layer and weak large-scale ascent associated
    with a small short-wave trough moving through the larger wavelength
    trough upstream. Lapse rates around 8 C/km in the 500-700 millibar
    layer have contributed to most-unstable CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg,
    with deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots. Despite these lapse
    rates, a freezing level around 600 millibars should limit the
    potential for large hail in the short-term. Thus, gusty thunderstorm
    outflows and small hail will be the primary near-term threats.

    Current thinking is that these storms will weaken early this
    afternoon as warm-air advection weakens. However, if the
    thunderstorms can transition to more surface-based over the next
    couple of hours, the likelihood of them persisting will increase.
    Thus the need for any potential watch through early afternoon is
    uncertain. Conditions will be monitored.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pDw3IAXasXS_OrNrCgj6L-7B2bOfMeCCHPGaG818k3nbj0asg1u6Wo87CXhnA9lAQcgNyJ1o$=
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    LAT...LON 36169497 36579493 36929452 36999379 37159316 37499291
    37789279 37949208 37769155 37119138 36449184 36199221
    35599361 35649433 35779465 36169497=20

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