• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1231

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 06:38:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100638
    SPC MCD 100637=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1231
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

    Valid 100637Z - 100730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361

    SUMMARY...Convection has gradually diminished overall, over the past
    hour, though local risk for damaging winds may continue for another
    hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined mesolow,
    crossing western Nebraska and associated with a bowing arc of storms
    along with a well-defined comma head. Overall however, convection
    has gradually decreased in intensity -- in part due to thermodynamic deficiencies arising from the effects of prior convection now moving
    across southeastern Nebraska.

    While locally damaging winds remain possible, given the
    well-organized nature of the mesoscale circulation and attendant
    band of storms, the overall convective trend should remain downward.
    One exception may be on the very southern fringe of the convection
    -- over southwestern Nebraska and into portions of northwestern and north-central Kansas -- where a more favorable thermodynamic
    environment is indicated, coincident with warm-advection-induced
    ascent associated with a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet across
    western Kansas. Any storms persisting across this portion of the
    area would largely/eventually shift into WW 360. Otherwise, given
    current trends, the current, scheduled 08Z expiration of the watch
    appears reasonable, with respect to the gradually diminishing risk.

    ..Goss.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!onLFMtffpVqSoVssjmViyVT09363C1MnisnjoNmgtsGg0a4QOIaRq0P8plaM4oYQ3yPC2duE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41920087 41669932 41369917 40899952 40590048 40790111
    41160122 41920087=20

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