Mesoscale Discussion 1231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...portions of western and central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...
Valid 100637Z - 100730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
SUMMARY...Convection has gradually diminished overall, over the past
hour, though local risk for damaging winds may continue for another
hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined mesolow,
crossing western Nebraska and associated with a bowing arc of storms
along with a well-defined comma head. Overall however, convection
has gradually decreased in intensity -- in part due to thermodynamic deficiencies arising from the effects of prior convection now moving
across southeastern Nebraska.
While locally damaging winds remain possible, given the
well-organized nature of the mesoscale circulation and attendant
band of storms, the overall convective trend should remain downward.
One exception may be on the very southern fringe of the convection
-- over southwestern Nebraska and into portions of northwestern and north-central Kansas -- where a more favorable thermodynamic
environment is indicated, coincident with warm-advection-induced
ascent associated with a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet across
western Kansas. Any storms persisting across this portion of the
area would largely/eventually shift into WW 360. Otherwise, given
current trends, the current, scheduled 08Z expiration of the watch
appears reasonable, with respect to the gradually diminishing risk.
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