Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...eastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 359...
Valid 100601Z - 100700Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 359 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue. With the watch
scheduled to expire at 07Z, local watch extension -- or new WW
issuance, may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an arcing band of strong/severe
storms moving south-southeastward across eastern Missouri and
adjacent southwestern Illinois, with a 70 MPH gust recently noted at
STL. The convection is advancing at 40 to 45 kt, and at this rate
of advance, storms will clear southern portions of the current watch
near the 10/07Z scheduled expiration time. With a moist/unstable
airmass ahead of the convection, and mid-level flow at least
modestly supportive of continued organization to the convection, a
new WW may be needed soon, extending into the PAH (Paducah KY) CWA.
Farther to the northwest, isolated, strong/severe storms continue to
regenerate and shift southeastward -- with this regeneration
occurring where a 30 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet is
impinging on the northwest-to-southeast front/outflow boundary over
eastern Missouri. Again, with the watch set to expire at 10/07z,
this portion of the area may also need to be included in any new WW
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