• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1227

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 05:21:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100521
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100521=20
    AZZ000-100615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...South-central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 100521Z - 100615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms moving into the southern
    portions of the Phoenix metro area will pose a risk of
    damaging/severe wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours. Due to limited temporal/areal threat, a watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms that formed earlier this
    evening over the Mogollon Rim and Gila mountains has intensified
    rapidly in the last 30-45 minutes. The outflow associated with
    these storms is now moving southwestward over 40 knots toward and
    south of the southern portions of the Phoenix metro area.=20
    Temperatures ahead of the storms remain in the low 100s, and
    forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE to maintain storms for
    another 1-2 hours. VAD profiles from IWA and PHX TDWR show 20+
    knots of southeasterly low-level inflow, and 20-30 knots of
    northwesterly mid-level winds. This is resulting in considerable inflow/convergence along the leading edge of convection to maintain
    intensity. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main threat.

    ..Hart.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tMkrh_aIpNmv421RrwDSoIisA0E6XgkT8TCLcyuIXhPKZOQ4pddRnFNb2M3En4Y6uxKEw1HW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33071329 33521227 33441129 32901098 32311120 32061223
    32151298 32521334 33071329=20



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