• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1225

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 03:45:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100344=20
    NEZ000-100515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1225
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...northwest NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

    Valid 100344Z - 100515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An intense supercell cluster will likely transition to a
    bow-shaped complex over the next 1 to 1.5 hours. During this
    relatively rare convective evolution, wind-driven large hail within
    a focused corridor of potential severe gusts may occur.

    DISCUSSION...An intense cluster of thunderstorms is quickly moving
    southeast across the NE Panhandle this evening ahead of a shortwave
    trough located over southeast MT/northeast WY. Strong
    west-northwesterly flow (50-60 kt) sampled between 4-8 km AGL atop
    low-level easterlies was noted on the Thedford, NE 88D VAD. The
    strong shear/forcing will favor a continuation of organized severe thunderstorms southeastward into west-central NE. It seems
    plausible wind-driven hail may accompany these storms as they move
    southeast over the next 1 to 1.5 hours. Severe gusts 60-75 mph and
    large hail are the threats with this activity.

    ..Smith.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tB2SrLGlI-0Glh9albBb2YcV_zL7CTaYT8TNEW2WWcXbRTLTwvrUgCqHmO-CC1UOpApLsL0p$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42260154 41890155 41610172 41500215 42080341 42310293
    42710271 42600253 42260154=20



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