Mesoscale Discussion 1225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...northwest NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...
Valid 100344Z - 100515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
SUMMARY...An intense supercell cluster will likely transition to a
bow-shaped complex over the next 1 to 1.5 hours. During this
relatively rare convective evolution, wind-driven large hail within
a focused corridor of potential severe gusts may occur.
DISCUSSION...An intense cluster of thunderstorms is quickly moving
southeast across the NE Panhandle this evening ahead of a shortwave
trough located over southeast MT/northeast WY. Strong
west-northwesterly flow (50-60 kt) sampled between 4-8 km AGL atop
low-level easterlies was noted on the Thedford, NE 88D VAD. The
strong shear/forcing will favor a continuation of organized severe thunderstorms southeastward into west-central NE. It seems
plausible wind-driven hail may accompany these storms as they move
southeast over the next 1 to 1.5 hours. Severe gusts 60-75 mph and
large hail are the threats with this activity.
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