Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...Northeast and central Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 359...
Valid 100326Z - 100430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 359 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for severe/significant winds is increase in
parts of central/eastern Missouri as a broad mesocyclone continues
to develop and move south/southeastward.
DISCUSSION...A broad mesocyclone is evident on KLSX radar velocity
imagery roughly centered in Ralls County, MO. As this feature
continues southward into a moderate to strongly unstable
environment, the potential for significant wind gusts will increase
in portions of central/eastern Missouri. The 00Z SGF sounding
sampled 8+ C/km lapse rates with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Strong
downdrafts will continue to be favored in this environment,
particularly as effective shear remains at 35-40 kts. Though storm
mode has become linear, KLSX VAD profile continues to show enough
low-level veering to support a threat for QLCS circulations and
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