• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1223

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 03:20:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100320
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100320=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-100515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1223
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...southeast NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

    Valid 100320Z - 100515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Significant severe gusts are becoming more likely as a
    squall line organizes and quickly moves into southeast NE through
    midnight. Widespread severe gusts are probable (60-70 mph) and
    localized gusts 75-85 mph are possible in east-southeast oriented
    swaths.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying squall line over
    east-central NE moving southeast at 40-45 kt. Surface analysis
    shows backed low-level surface winds to the east of the squall line
    over eastern NE within a baroclinic zone. Surface temperatures have
    only slowly cooled into the low-mid 80s near I-80 with surface
    dewpoints in the mid 70s. As a result, it seems plausible upwards
    of 17-18 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean ratios are present ahead of the
    squall line. As the squall line continues to mature over the next
    hour, this moisture-rich airmass will enhance the potential for
    large, water-loaded storms. The early signs of this occurring are
    indicated by echo tops exceeding 60 kft in Buffalo County in recent
    radar data. The favorable wind profile (40-50 kt effective shear)
    and large buoyancy will strongly favor a severe MCS across southeast
    NE during the next 1-3 hours as a terminus of a strengthening LLJ
    focuses over the area. Significant severe gusts (75-85 mph) are
    possible in localized swaths within broader severe gusts with the
    squall line.

    ..Smith.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qSgzz-Vrlg2zfx7VvH_fszfHIOmHTwaqJpsv2FRZ4_SWG6j0I3qUr7vEgLS-KmUDQPZlH5d0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 40569842 41129790 41319733 40869611 40229607 39969676
    40569842=20



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