• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1222

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 02:12:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100212
    SPC MCD 100212=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1222
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0912 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...eastern NE...southwest IA...northeast
    KS...northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 100212Z - 100415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by late
    evening for a severe risk expected to develop during the overnight.=20
    Severe gusts will be the primary risk with the stronger storms.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of storms from the
    SD/NE border into parts of western NE. Water-vapor imagery
    indicates the leading plume of large-scale ascent associated with a
    mid-level shortwave trough, is currently over the Sandhills. The
    airmass over northeast KS northward into eastern NE/southwest IA is
    very unstable with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE according to modified
    Topeka, KS and Omaha, NE 00z raobs. The onset of an intensifying
    LLJ over the central Great Plains is being observed in KUEX and KTWX
    88D VAD data. Models indicate the LLJ and associated warm air advection/isentropic lift will increase through midnight with the
    terminus of the LLJ focused over southeast NE/southwest IA and
    adjacent parts of northeast KS/northwest MO. Current expectation is
    the ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm clusters over central NE
    will move east-southeast over the next couple of hours, with an
    associated severe hazard and move into western parts of the
    discussion area by 11pm-12am.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pou-vqBLbPkxGO1WERu7HfkJyswoPmXGx_2nWjyWNMXPqyXD51uZqoqqw1DYBAJIKA6XGHr3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42239676 41879537 41059389 39949371 39229415 38929566
    39319777 42239676=20

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