• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1221

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 01:49:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100149
    SPC MCD 100149=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1221
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...East-central Colorado...west-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

    Valid 100149Z - 100315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in east-central Colorado will move
    into a more favorable environment for severe wind gusts and isolated
    large hail. As this threat may persist beyond 10 PM CDT, a new WW
    may be needed for parts of far eastern Colorado into western Kansas.
    Trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
    in east-central Colorado. As they move southeastward, they will
    encounter low 60s F dewpoints with MLCAPE nearing 1500-2000 J/kg.
    Given the dewpoint spreads at the surface, storms are likely to be
    outflow dominant and primary pose a severe wind gust risk. However,
    regional RAOBs this evening did sample very steep mid-level lapse
    rates and long hodographs (40-50 kts of effective shear) will
    promote at least an isolated large hail threat as well. The main
    question will be how far south and east this activity will go as
    MLCIN will become more pronounced. The longevity of these storms
    will hinge on the degree of cold pool organization that can occur in
    the next hour or so. That being said, some severe risk may extend
    beyond 10 PM CDT for areas still in or just south of WW 356. A new
    watch may need to be considered should convective trends warrant.

    ..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tPxd17vOPB0SbyjM1j-fpYHbvT0Xh_tBIn2eYl_f8WWbijJaLjmI1jIGtQlcyxEOTKSdB4QH$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39400364 39810377 40060336 39770251 39190068 38770003
    38260031 37960099 37880160 37870198 38290242 39400364=20

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