• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1220

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 01:21:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100121
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100121=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-100315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1220
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0821 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...Central/eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

    Valid 100121Z - 100315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
    continues.

    SUMMARY...As activity in WW 356 increase, storms will continue to
    move east into a strongly unstable airmass. A new downstream WW is
    likely by 02Z for parts of eastern Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has increased along the cold front in
    central Nebraska with a small line segment also developing farther
    east of earlier supercells in western Nebraska. As this activity
    continues to the east, driven by lift associated with the low-level
    jet as well as an approaching shortwave, storms will encounter a
    strongly unstable environment sampled by the 00Z OAX sounding.
    Effective bulk shear of 50-55 kts will favor storm organization,
    though the mode is likely to be predominantly linear. As such,
    severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat, though
    mid-level lapse rates would favor large hail in any more discrete
    storms.

    Activity in southern South Dakota has also increased over the last
    hour. These storms are forming in an environment that has remained
    cooler. These multicell storms may produce large hail, but will
    similarly congeal as they move toward the southeast where better
    buoyancy exists.

    A new WW downstream is likely by 02Z.

    ..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oN6gXRFSzEcMMQlkYUMVzkig939Sez6hUx_TJm0qsYdvl6i-jOCVTxnQy6Fj0S2jx94JqwIP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42250183 42640119 43010081 43180021 43219914 42889762
    42159642 41129652 40419691 40199738 40439892 40940013
    41130114 41530219 42010243 42250183=20



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