• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1219

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 10 00:54:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100054
    SPC MCD 100054=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1219
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...northern into east-central MO...west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 100054Z - 100130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for
    much of the area in the short term.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over the past hour has moved from
    southeast IA into west-central IL and is near the edge of severe
    thunderstorm watch 358. The risk for large hail will likely extend southeastward into west-central IL over the next few hours as the
    ongoing activity and additional storms form this evening. It is
    uncertain whether surface-based thunderstorm development will occur
    farther west over northern MO in a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg
    MLCAPE per the Springfield, MO and Topeka, KS 00z raobs). If storms
    develop, the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts will correspondingly increase.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 07/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pskUOVRB3TsToWcWZZ2nKGgBLLELjYGscQzOPTNqm2jA2fTnmFYoFhkv3WWQ680Ijbh1hW85$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40589273 40309050 40048971 39008935 38628996 38749126
    39179238 39749397 40279387 40589273=20

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