SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for
much of the area in the short term.
DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over the past hour has moved from
southeast IA into west-central IL and is near the edge of severe
thunderstorm watch 358. The risk for large hail will likely extend southeastward into west-central IL over the next few hours as the
ongoing activity and additional storms form this evening. It is
uncertain whether surface-based thunderstorm development will occur
farther west over northern MO in a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE per the Springfield, MO and Topeka, KS 00z raobs). If storms
develop, the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts will correspondingly increase.
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