• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1218

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 23:17:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092317
    SPC MCD 092316=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1218
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0616 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...Western/central Nebraska...northeast
    Colorado...northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

    Valid 092316Z - 100115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase due to increasing
    large-scale lift across the central Plains this evening. Large hail
    severe wind gusts will remain possible. MCS development is most
    likely from the Nebraska Panhandle into central Nebraska, which
    would bring a greater severe wind gust threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has remained isolated across WW 356
    likely on account of shortwave ridging aloft. With time, an
    approaching shortwave moving southeastward out of Montana as well as
    an increasing low-level jet in western Kansas into southwestern
    Nebraska will increase large-scale lift. This should lead to
    increasing storm coverage in portions of WW 356. CAM guidance has
    continued to differ on the exact evolution of the current activity
    in western Nebraska/northeast Colorado.

    The ongoing supercell in northeast Colorado continues to move toward
    better moisture and will be situated near the the low-level jet axis
    this evening in western Kansas. This activity could grow upscale and
    move southeastward. The downstream environment has seen dewpoint mix
    out into the low 60s F making it uncertain as to how far such
    activity will progress.

    The more likely scenario, based on current observations, is that
    storms in the Nebraska Panhandle will continue to grow upscale and
    organize along a weak cold front situated north of I-80. Better
    mid-level ascent from the approaching shortwave gives greater
    confidence in this occurring within the next 2-4 hours.

    ..Wendt.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r-TinRsGXYXX8FXlgnO6KZUIC9uBix7nxR1BJfBmk-BNZVRUrOwc-suhlAwSdW4shXrJ3J4W$=
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    LAT...LON 41340383 41650412 42440424 42790318 42409944 41769809
    40599887 39929999 39510063 39260150 39150204 39320263
    40000317 41340383=20

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