• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1217

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 22:41:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092240=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-100015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1217
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092240Z - 100015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe hail may accompany the stronger, elevated
    updrafts over the next few hours. How widespread the severe hail
    threat will be is uncertain given lack of stronger, deep-layer lift.
    Conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW
    issuance should more robust updrafts become relatively widespread.

    DISCUSSION...Multicellular thunderstorms, rooted at/above 850 mb
    (per latest RAP forecast soundings) have been intensifying along an
    elevated moist-frontal boundary in the 850-700 mb layer given the
    passage of a small, embedded impulse at 700 mb. Latest mesoanalysis
    suggests that 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE parcels are advecting into this
    region, supporting updraft intensification and subsequent severe
    hail potential. While 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that
    some storm organization is possible over the next few hours, the
    storms will likely quickly propagate into a relatively more stable
    elevated airmass, suggesting that the severe hail threat may also be short-lived. Given the potentially limited spatial/temporal coverage
    of the severe hail threat, the need for a WW issuance is uncertain. Nonetheless, conditions will continue to be monitored should more
    widespread, robust updraft development becomes more prevalent.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oODYLhKc0OAytVqimXexXGULwZBNv0sDkit6KJVOAV4T17UoeTeajlSpQABpqTJdPgYEU6Sc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41049208 41719261 42259315 42679333 42929299 43049229
    42979184 42669144 42159100 41679087 41259089 40979108
    40759161 41049208=20



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