• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1216

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 21:41:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092140=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-092315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1216
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...Carolina coastal plain

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092140Z - 092315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Several strong to locally severe thunderstorms (capable of
    45-60 mph gusts) are possible through early this evening (8pm EDT).=20
    The risk for wind damage will likely diminish thereafter.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of broken linear clusters
    of storms extending from central GA northeastward across the
    Carolinas to far southeast VA. A surface trough was analyzed from
    the Savannah River Valley northeast to 20 mi southeast the Research
    Triangle. The airmass ahead of the thunderstorms is considered very
    moist and unstable with temperatures around 90 deg in inland areas
    away from the beaches, and dewpoints ranging the mid-upper 70s.=20
    Area 88D VAD data shows flow at or below 20 kt from the west. Most
    of the thunderstorm activity will likely remain tempered in overall
    intensity (due to the limited shear) but a few stronger cores could
    lead to water-loaded wet microbursts. The stronger downdrafts will
    be capable of wind damage (45-55 mph) but locally up to near 60 mph.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t5oJRaJ2awedvKgqEU41kMQjIqh-Xt4aqCAM8SbYYsRfYCjxBN_JkS56nA42ghPzHjpXGHDS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 33218055 34187955 35627821 36377671 35857641 34567761
    33817841 32897963 33218055=20



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