• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 20:36:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092035=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-092230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeast New York into eastern
    Pennsylvania...far northeast Maryland...western New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092035Z - 092230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues to increase across portions of
    the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. Damaging gusts remain the primary
    threat with the stronger, longer-lived storms. Conditions will
    continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters, evident via MRMS mosaic radar
    imagery, have demonstrated small, bow-type structures over the past
    hour or so, with some damaging gusts reported. These storms are
    progressing in an environment characterized by widespread, poor
    mid-level lapse rates, but with 7+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates (evident
    via 20Z mesoanalysis and 19Z RAP forecast soundings). The
    aforementioned low-level lapse rates atop upper 60s to 70 F surface
    dewpoints are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt
    effective bulk shear. These bulk shear vectors are oriented roughly perpendicular to the smaller linear segments. As such, storms are
    expected to continue supporting damaging gust potential through the
    remainder of the diurnal heating cycle. It is unclear how widespread
    the damaging gust threat will be through the remainder of the
    afternoon. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of
    a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance should it become evident that
    more widespread damaging gusts will become likely.

    ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t5hvPiOXWDpREl6HiQ6doD5RrX1xlBdL32bWrnB3bfREUnb8NRMYS9SqQJPvlJTNjtm3coQd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39667526 39547579 39607655 40087747 40257770 41647647
    42497520 42377471 41867430 41277423 40427469 39737526
    39667526=20



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