• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1214

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 20:20:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092020=20
    SDZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-092145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1214
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092020Z - 092145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop southeastward into northeast
    Wyoming this evening, with areas of strong wind gusts or marginal
    hail.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed northwest of Billings MT over
    the higher terrain, and on the north side of a cyclonic speed max
    aloft with cooler 500 mb temperatures. Meanwhile farther south,
    increasing CU is noted over the Big Horns, with strong heating
    occurring area-wide.

    Surface analysis shows a trough over eastern WY, which is also
    coincident with the theta-e axis. Though low-level winds are weak,
    steepening deep-layer lapse rates and sufficient moisture should
    sustain cells across southeast MT, with new development expected
    around 21-22Z across northeastern WY.

    The combination of very steep lapse rates and long hodographs will
    support cells capable of marginal hail, and perhaps severe hail
    later tonight into eastern WY where moisture is more abundant. With
    time, locally severe gusts may occur as outflow become more
    prominent.

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qd-o_haCIjQwQJBU3PXjaZX1EYOI93t8zHVsUnBU4xl4C_dojHYS6rZLmnqomN8rViLPcOZf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 43730409 43490470 43480615 43840681 44500768 44940872
    45441026 45821067 46251050 46450942 46020754 45420610
    44880481 44650427 44090395 43730409=20



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