• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1213

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 19:39:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091939
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091938=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1213
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern Wyoming...Northeastern
    Colorado...Western Nebraska...and Far Northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 091938Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are initiating over the high terrain of
    southeastern Wyoming. The storms are expected to intensify as they
    move eastward into a more favorable environment. A severe
    thunderstorm watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Enhanced midlevel westerly flow, associated with a
    shortwave trough approaching from the west, is overspreading the
    area and aiding in thunderstorm initiation over southeastern
    Wyoming. This enhanced midlevel westerly flow, when coupled with
    weak easterly upslope low-level flow over the central High Plains,
    is resulting in effective bulk shear values around 50 knots across
    much of the area. As the storms move eastward off the higher terrain
    and encounter a more favorable thermodynamic environment over the
    plains (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg in the Nebraska Panhandle per SPC
    mesoanalysis), they are expected to intensify posing a threat for
    large hail initially (with mid-level lapse rates over 8 C/km).=20
    Eventually, the storms are expected to grow upscale this evening
    transitioning to a damaging-wind threat, especially as the
    south-southwesterly low-level jet increases after dark.

    ..Jirak/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u26FGgMWEYvkCH7mEIlX-mvmtugw4EkYmDn1jQlR5meSjyRGiGixXOx23-Bv1I8oFV0Qk5Bb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39930487 40730543 41290549 41950539 42340499 42670407
    42680338 42650252 42590188 42530127 42360086 41410045
    40180041 39280145 39390314 39930487=20



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