• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1212

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 18:29:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091829
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091828=20
    IAZ000-092030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1212
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...Central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091828Z - 092030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An elevated severe-hail-producing storm in Boone County
    Iowa may persist for the next couple of hours. Given the expected
    limited spatiotemporal nature of the hail threat, a severe
    thunderstorm watch is currently not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed in a
    warm-advection regime across central Iowa with a history of
    producing severe hail. Given the favorable MUCAPE and effective
    deep-layer shear, severe hail will continue to be a threat from this
    storm as it moves south-southeastward along the instability
    gradient. Additional severe storms are not anticipated until later
    this afternoon/evening when better large-scale forcing for ascent
    moves in from the west. Thus, a watch is currently not anticipated
    over the next couple hours, but convective trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    ..Jirak/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rsf4T5I163bSftOK0UAJBfQd2B3WJiO2ju2WkyiICUouu02OTLabrnGR_0rgY3GX3FIJgtk4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42049415 42219394 42079356 41659328 41329316 41089321
    40929348 41289397 42049415=20



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