• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1209

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 07:28:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090728
    SPC MCD 090728=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1209
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

    Areas affected...coastal portions of New Jersey and into western
    Long Island and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090728Z - 090930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for a brief/weak tornado or two continues near the
    New Jersey coast. WW not anticipated at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that Elsa's center has moved
    offshore east of Cape May, NJ, and is moving steadily
    north-northeastward. To the north and northeast of the center, the
    main convective band is likewise advancing northward, while embedded
    cells feed westward into coastal portions of southern New Jersey.

    Several of these cells continue to exhibit low-level rotation
    offshore, per WSR-88D VWP data. Additionally, some slight increase
    in cellular character -- and updraft intensity -- appears to have
    occurred with the center of Elsa now over water. However, the
    circulations continue to weaken quickly as they move onshore, and
    given the poor thermodynamic environment onshore, this trend should
    persist. Still, a brief/weak tornado or two will remain a
    possibility over the next few hours for immediate coastal areas,
    with this risk gradually spreading northward toward Long Island
    through the 09Z to 10Z time frame.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oUu7HiPg59WkYUGD-VxgMAjP--g-y96nAaZHjLDorn9fIxJDVCuKEMDhjHVW7v8FQg8pOhqV$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39007338 39337380 39417424 39237473 39377492 39817457
    40637417 40597366 39997266 39007338=20

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