• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 9 01:55:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090154=20
    SDZ000-090400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1207
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0854 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...Central and Southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...

    Valid 090154Z - 090400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across central and southeastern South Dakota over the next few hours. Large hail and
    wind damage will be possible with the stronger cells. The area
    affected will be to the east of WW 354, where a new watch will
    likely be needed later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high resolution radar from Bismark, North
    Dakota shows a small cluster of severe thunderstorms centered about
    100 statute miles to the west of Mobridge, South Dakota. These
    storms are expected to move along the far eastern edge of WW 354.
    Additional thunderstorms will develop to the east of WW 354 in parts
    of central South Dakota over the next hour. According to the RAP,
    the environment is characterized to have moderate instability and
    strong deep-layer shear. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be as strong
    as 60 kt in some areas. In addition, a band of large-scale ascent
    will approach from the west, which combined with increasing lift
    associated with a strengthening low-level jet, will result in
    scattered thunderstorm development across central and southeastern
    South Dakota later this evening. The stronger cells will likely have
    a threat for large hail and wind damage. Although the convective
    cluster will become elevated, it may affect areas to the east of the
    Missouri River, where a new weather watch will likely be needed.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!saWlbBSxMmrJnnEqi-LGK5C66jx0YhHf_MdnUyMg1DnM19_leP-nTm2-XUih0qELbG1EB-vw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44869775 43839768 43289859 44340107 44790181 45350184
    45790158 45850011 44869775=20



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