• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1205

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 22:56:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082256=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-090100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1205
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Montana...Western North Dakota...Western
    South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...353...354...

    Valid 082256Z - 090100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352, 353,
    354 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across the northern High Plains is
    expected to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours. Very
    large hail and wind damage will be possible. A brief tornado could
    also occur.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Glasgow, Montana shows
    two short line segments ongoing across northeast Montana and far
    northwestern North Dakota. The eastern most line in far northwest
    North Dakota is the most vigorous with a several embedded
    supercells. The RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate to strong
    instability just ahead of this line, with MLCAPE estimated in the
    2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This line of strong to severe storms is
    being supported by a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery
    over eastern Montana. As large-scale ascent moves eastward across
    the northern High Plains this evening, cell coverage is expected to
    increase. The instability combined with 40 to 50 kt of deep-layer
    shear will be favorable for large hail and wind damage associated
    with supercells and organized line segments. A brief tornado may
    also occur with supercells that remain dominant.

    Further to the south, the Rapid City, South Dakota high resolution
    radar shows an isolated supercell about 40 statute miles to the
    north of Rapid City. The Rapid City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear
    near 60 kt which will continue to support the supercell early this
    evening. The shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.0
    C/km according to the RAP, will support a threat for large hail.
    Isolated very large hail (hailstones greater than 2 inches in
    diameter) will be possible. A wind-damage threat will also exist.

    ..Broyles.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vsB0Nc4pI8yP8eVmz1ERwzbgw483c0G7qAKJiDcy_9egPiN1zn4sbeCoBn1APDeFaqpaLi4S$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 44370208 45110145 46770129 48200156 48640189 48890247
    48900362 48760401 48400420 47960423 46550411 44570386
    44230320 44370208=20



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