Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania northeastward into Connecticut
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351...
Valid 082036Z - 082230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible over parts of the
area, but the event has likely peaked. Locally damaging gusts or
marginal hail can be expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in coverage across
southeast PA in a zone of warm advection, and some of these may
contain marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Farther east, outflow
from an earlier, more robust cluster has reinforced a boundary which
is beginning to limit the warm sector over NJ. MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg
remains south of the outflow boundary, which may yet lead to a few
strong to severe cells, but shear is weaker with southward extent. A
continued increase in storm coverage and outflow production suggest
the greatest severe risk is in the short term.
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