• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 20:34:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082034
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082034=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...western North Dakota into portions of South Dakota
    and Montana.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

    Valid 082034Z - 082200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ahead of ongoing severe storms across WW 352, a
    destabilizing airmass will support additional thunderstorm
    development this afternoon and evening. A downstream watch will
    likely be needed by 21-22z.

    DISCUSSION...Several supercells ongoing in northeastern Montana
    should continue into a destabilizing airmass across the western
    Dakotas over the next hour. While some inhibition remains across
    western North Dakota, continuing erosion of residual capping should
    allow for additional connective development this afternoon. Some
    initial weakening of ongoing storms is expected given remaining
    MLCINH, but this should be relatively short lived as robust heating
    continues to destabilize the environment. Strong deep-layer shear of
    45-55 kts of 1500-2000 K/kg of MLCAPE will support supercells
    capable of damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail. Some
    upscale growth is also expected later this evening with the
    potential for a swath of damaging winds, some of which may be
    significant. An additional weather watch is likely needed by 21-22z
    for a downstream severe threat across portions of the western
    Dakotas.

    ..Lyons.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uXfsvrddqTIStfgpQubVdrWiuhhdjWcHWMAFr3uRMGJoR4_MjpKYlj37i6LFmiQa5pFWwTvh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46790177 46010173 45280229 44870297 44720370 44990406
    45400434 46380490 47430589 48220685 48440752 48800751
    49050729 49060612 49040572 49040563 49090376 48580312
    48030260 47390208 47000185 46790177=20



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