• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1199

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 17:51:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081751=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-081915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1199
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Ohio River Valley and central
    Indiana.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081751Z - 081915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong thunderstorms will pose a risk
    mainly for damaging wind gusts as they track southeastward this
    afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
    weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar mosaics and visible
    imagery have shown thunderstorms increasing in intensity and
    coverage across portions of south-central Indiana and eastern
    Illinois. Located along a cold front front beneath the western
    portions of a mid-level trough, these storms are ongoing in a
    moderately unstable/sheared environment. Obs and SPC mesoanalysis
    indicate dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to around 1500-2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level flow
    behind the trough is not overly strong, but is supporting 25-30 kts
    of effective shear. This should act to organize storms into
    multicell clusters and short line segments capable of damaging wind
    gusts.=20

    As additional storm development takes place this afternoon, some
    upscale growth into a more organized linear segment appears
    possible. As such, an additional risk for damaging winds may develop
    near and immediately south of the Ohio River across portions of
    northern Kentucky and southwestern Ohio. Uncertainty on the nature
    of the severe threat remains, but convective trends suggest a watch
    could be needed this afternoon.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u46mrSlZ8xUaGIb0Vr_2Gfezrpoj1driSEBDKOC8NsVmIY2OIfchtGR8XtfMMb8QVGsPnwvX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39718473 39608450 39278426 39118424 38728457 38498471
    37998525 37628604 37578675 37818717 38268758 38658761
    39058762 39438751 39788715 39908655 39888561 39798508
    39718473=20



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