• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1198

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 17:45:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081745
    SPC MCD 081744=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1198
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey northeastward
    into southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081744Z - 082015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
    few hours, from southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and New
    Jersey, and localized wind damage and hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are regenerating along the southwestern flank of
    an ongoing cluster of storms, now extending from northern NJ across
    southern NY and into western CT. A very moist and unstable air mass
    exists in this area, with further heating expected. Shear is
    marginal for long lived/organized severe, but isolated severe cells
    will be possible with wind or hail threat due to robust
    thermodynamics. The most favorable shear currently extends from
    northern NJ into southern NY and into western CT with effective SRH
    over 100 m2/s2, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional cells
    may eventually develop upstream into PA later this afternoon, and
    the entire area will be monitored for watch potential, dependent on
    storm coverage.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rSdExwnBvucs3WvZhGoOnWdAmeNlQlB5-9XnZmTaBqc54Dwbmm2yqMLRI3ee_L0OUlsz1s1w$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40027380 39707534 39677605 39967659 40397644 40957610
    41657450 41707286 41437256 40807289 40027380=20

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