• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 17:32:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081732
    SPC MCD 081731=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Ohio into western New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081731Z - 082000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible as activity strengthens
    across northeast Ohio and moves into western Pennsylvania and New

    DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase near surface trough in OH,
    where pockets of heating have led to a plume of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
    While currently cooler downstream into PA and NY, slightly backed
    low-level winds have led to around 100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH. This area is
    near the upper wave axis, and further destabilization is possible
    into PA and NY due to warm advection from the southwest.

    Hodographs are not overly large, but indicative of a marginal
    supercell environment with around 30 kt effective shear and
    aforementioned low-level SRH. While storms are currently oriented
    along a line in OH, a good cross-boundary component may support
    individual cells with the line.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sNXHtcPNxrOj8a5mEQOeL3qj7Mds6eFyCC1isnocVyzMWylEUqSiuH_fEQKcefh2WYCUvRv-$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40458296 40788251 41168227 41508210 41948102 42278002
    42577948 42927907 43017855 42877822 42687802 42287813
    41777905 40988016 40498104 40438153 40458296=20

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