Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Areas affected...northeast Ohio into western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 081731Z - 082000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible as activity strengthens
across northeast Ohio and moves into western Pennsylvania and New
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase near surface trough in OH,
where pockets of heating have led to a plume of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
While currently cooler downstream into PA and NY, slightly backed
low-level winds have led to around 100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH. This area is
near the upper wave axis, and further destabilization is possible
into PA and NY due to warm advection from the southwest.
Hodographs are not overly large, but indicative of a marginal
supercell environment with around 30 kt effective shear and
aforementioned low-level SRH. While storms are currently oriented
along a line in OH, a good cross-boundary component may support
individual cells with the line.
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