• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1196

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 16:12:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081612
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081611=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-081815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1196
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1111 AM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

    Areas affected...northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 349...

    Valid 081611Z - 081815Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 349 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for brief tornadoes continues in relation to
    Elsa, and another watch may be needed extending downstream into
    southeast Virginia.

    DISCUSSION...Favorable instability is in place along and east of the
    track of Elsa, with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to around 1500
    J/kg MLCAPE despite widespread rain and clouds. The stronger
    low-level shear/effective SRH is in a relatively concentrated area
    near the circulation, but this parameter space should bodily move
    northeastward into VA today. Sporadic circulations have been noted
    on radar with the primary zone of cells extending from Nash County
    NC southeastward toward New Bern. Cells farther away from the
    center, currently over northeast NC and southeast VA, are in a
    region of lesser shear, but this should gradually change over the
    next several hours, necessitating a new watch.

    ..Jewell.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_h8T0F4Q0eR0-iTpfuitrCZTzmgr1nb2j7ciIXcoKuDn-MjqadWosoNAQlz2DoaPZC_VFBa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 34517720 34947739 35287778 35617821 35777843 36177839
    36617850 36997833 37337754 37487688 37377618 37177577
    36777580 36297571 36007556 35777537 35237548 34947602
    34797634 34517720=20



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