Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Areas affected...northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 349...
Valid 081611Z - 081815Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 349 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for brief tornadoes continues in relation to
Elsa, and another watch may be needed extending downstream into
DISCUSSION...Favorable instability is in place along and east of the
track of Elsa, with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE despite widespread rain and clouds. The stronger
low-level shear/effective SRH is in a relatively concentrated area
near the circulation, but this parameter space should bodily move
northeastward into VA today. Sporadic circulations have been noted
on radar with the primary zone of cells extending from Nash County
NC southeastward toward New Bern. Cells farther away from the
center, currently over northeast NC and southeast VA, are in a
region of lesser shear, but this should gradually change over the
next several hours, necessitating a new watch.
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