• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1192

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 04:01:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080401
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080400=20
    RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-080500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1192
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast New York...Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080400Z - 080500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat currently located near the western
    edge of WW 344 is expected to continue for another hour. However,
    the threat should become more isolated as the line moves eastward
    across southeast New York. It is unlikely that WW 344 will need to
    be extended further in time beyond the 05Z expiration time.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Albany, New York shows a well-developed line segment, located in the western part of the
    Hudson River Valley. The line is near a quasi-stationary front with
    surface dewpoints along the boundary around 70 F. The line is
    located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability.
    MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg over eastern
    Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The instability will help the
    line to remain organized for another hour or so as the cold pool
    moves eastward. However, cooling surface temperatures will likely
    result in a gradual downtrend of the severe threat.

    ..Broyles.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ocAzXPIRn9ThGxkgN9cjO0XzRPv8h4HkJuvr1yvVFgm1E4sQTlt1j0BbNzQRuxUkUoKB52VD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 40617241 40967383 41277442 41507478 42337484 42697466
    42677361 42567280 41407182 40617241=20



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