Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021
Areas affected...Southeast New York...Southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 080400Z - 080500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat currently located near the western
edge of WW 344 is expected to continue for another hour. However,
the threat should become more isolated as the line moves eastward
across southeast New York. It is unlikely that WW 344 will need to
be extended further in time beyond the 05Z expiration time.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Albany, New York shows a well-developed line segment, located in the western part of the
Hudson River Valley. The line is near a quasi-stationary front with
surface dewpoints along the boundary around 70 F. The line is
located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability.
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 2000 J/kg over eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The instability will help the
line to remain organized for another hour or so as the cold pool
moves eastward. However, cooling surface temperatures will likely
result in a gradual downtrend of the severe threat.
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