• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1190

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 8 01:15:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080115
    SPC MCD 080115=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0815 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming...far southwest South
    Dakota...and far northwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 080115Z - 080315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A developing line of storms may continue to intensify for
    the next 1-2 hours and pose a severe wind risk. Confidence in the
    longevity of this threat is low, and conditions will be monitored
    for the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar and GOES IR imagery show
    re-intensification of convection across northeast WY associated with
    the remnants of an earlier cluster that moved out of southern MT.
    This line of storms is developing along an instability gradient that
    stretches from northeast WY into far western NE. Deep layer flow
    across this region is oriented in a similar manner with 40-50 knots
    of effective bulk shear along the boundary. With sunset still around
    one hour away, a brief window will likely exist where the line of
    storms can intensify and pose a severe wind risk across northeast WY
    into adjacent areas of SD and NE. The longevity of this threat is
    uncertain after 02z when diurnal cooling of a modestly moist air
    mass (dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s noted) augments surface and mixed-layer inhibition. Trends will continue to be monitored for the
    need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ot5YhgK5RYvTM5ea28ocoR8dSaY7AEXRoyse55J96pLfubBM3rr-A0t-u0MmsWhYgMX5vKnI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43930566 44420518 44740475 44650401 44260358 44030329
    43490287 43020271 42660291 42590356 42700434 43090507
    43610558 43930566=20

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