• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 23:49:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072348=20
    MTZ000-080145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1189
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0648 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

    Valid 072348Z - 080145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds continues across WW346 as
    storms transverse southern and central Montana.

    DISCUSSION...A few broken convective lines continue to move eastward
    across southern and central MT with several measured severe gust and
    wind damage reports noted over the past hour. Although MLCAPE
    remains modest per recent mesoanlysis estimates (upwards of 500
    J/kg), mid and upper-level winds remain strong over the region with
    60-80 knot westerly winds noted in recent KBLX and KGGW VWP
    observations. The strong shear and modest instability will continue
    to support loosely organized bands of storms capable of severe winds
    at least through 03z and possibly later as diurnal cooling gradually
    increases inhibition. The highest wind threat may reside along/ahead
    of the intersection of a western band of storms and the outflow from
    a leading cluster where lift will be maximized. Storms approaching
    eastern portions of WW 346 will encounter better boundary-layer
    moisture and slightly decreased MLCIN that may allow the severe risk
    to persist into far eastern MT, though radar presentation of the
    leading convection has been poor over the past 30 minutes,
    introducing uncertainty into this potential. New development is also
    noted west of the Glasgow, MT area where the CAPE/shear parameter
    space is similar to locations further south, though weaker forcing
    for ascent should support more isolated cells (and perhaps a higher
    hail threat).

    ..Moore.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urkM9cySXU89MRXd4-Sn1dTPo1zYXHdzE8VM-bvTAJXuCHnmfnwvNMxVQsEIM19HgUh-IjMy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45411042 46401049 47171024 47500919 47390735 47310645
    46880585 46290548 45760563 45180621 45090763 45120981
    45411042=20



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