• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1188

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 23:12:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072311=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-080115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1188
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0611 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania...Southern New
    York...Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...345...

    Valid 072311Z - 080115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344, 345
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will continue for several more hours
    as cells track eastward across WW 344 and WW 345.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 23Z shows a quasi-stationary front
    located from near Lake Erie eastward across southern New York into
    southern New England. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints
    are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This is contributing to a
    moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the
    1500 to 2000 J/kg range across the northern parts of WW 344 and 345.
    In addition to the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is measured near 35
    kt on the Binghamton WSR-88D VWP. This appears representative of the
    amount of shear across the northern part of the watches. The shear
    combined with the instability will be sufficient for isolated
    damaging wind gusts, associated with the more organized multicell
    line segments. The threat should be greatest over the next couple
    hours as low-level lapse rates remain steep. As the boundary layer
    cools later this evening, the severe threat should become more
    isolated.

    ..Broyles.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vuOXw1Y5NtMZNku7aTthQ2ONa4MnkVLd6ERgxIzTR2yZWK27d0yb2CflJHQkhcnKsWNtTi9s$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 42647337 42607124 42387092 41947078 41377099 41067203
    40787520 40867806 41647918 41987931 42307898 42487682
    42627359 42647337=20



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