SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be needed by 00z across portions
of southeast Georgia and into southern areas of coastal South
Carolina and Tropical Storm Elsa continues northeastward this
evening and tonight.
DISCUSSION...Two tornadoes have been reported over the past 1-2
hours across parts of northeast FL within an pronounced convective
rain band on the east/northeastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa.
These tornadoes have largely been focused near a surface confluence
axis where near-surface winds have been nearly due easterly,
contributing to locally higher values of low-level SRH. The tornado
threat associated with this rain band/confluence axis will translate
to the northeast this evening along the southeast GA/SC coast in
tandem with the tropical storm. The easterly winds north of the
confluence axis will allow for long fetches off the coast and
support a continued influx of higher theta-e air with dewpoints in
the mid 70s. Given this potential, a downstream tornado watch will
be needed before 00z to address the evening/overnight threat.
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