• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1187

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 22:13:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072213
    SPC MCD 072212=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1187
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Georgia and southern coastal South

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 072212Z - 080015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be needed by 00z across portions
    of southeast Georgia and into southern areas of coastal South
    Carolina and Tropical Storm Elsa continues northeastward this
    evening and tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Two tornadoes have been reported over the past 1-2
    hours across parts of northeast FL within an pronounced convective
    rain band on the east/northeastern side of Tropical Storm Elsa.
    These tornadoes have largely been focused near a surface confluence
    axis where near-surface winds have been nearly due easterly,
    contributing to locally higher values of low-level SRH. The tornado
    threat associated with this rain band/confluence axis will translate
    to the northeast this evening along the southeast GA/SC coast in
    tandem with the tropical storm. The easterly winds north of the
    confluence axis will allow for long fetches off the coast and
    support a continued influx of higher theta-e air with dewpoints in
    the mid 70s. Given this potential, a downstream tornado watch will
    be needed before 00z to address the evening/overnight threat.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ufYZRZWeM8d-NRk7J-kIhjLaszz5v7ECtdm1MpQKsPuf2on8wHhldbKxaYuswunbsJOFAEPZ$=
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    LAT...LON 30828214 31108228 31468225 32028203 32638155 33008111
    33298051 33197996 32947968 32557980 32278010 31898071
    31398092 31108106 30808111 30718153 30828214=20

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