• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1185

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 20:47:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072047
    SPC MCD 072047=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1185
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...portions of far northeast Florida into southeast
    Georgia and far southern South Carolina

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 342...

    Valid 072047Z - 072245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 342 continues.

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remains possible with a primary
    rain-band near the center of Elsa, and with more isolated
    thunderstorms ahead of the Tropical Storm. An additional tornado
    watch may be needed for South Carolina later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Elsa is located near the
    FL/GA border, and is gradually drifting northeast along the Atlantic
    Coastline. A convective rain-band, supporting occasional lightning
    strikes, has been noted along a line from Ware County, GA to St.
    Johns County, FL, with some confluence and occasional instances of
    brief low-level rotation noted. However, this band is surrounded by
    a broader region of stratiform precipitation, where temperatures are
    struggling to reach or sustain above the mid 70s F, inhibiting
    appreciable instability. As such, robust updrafts capable of
    producing tornadoes are expected to remain quite sparse, though a
    brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.=20

    Farther northeast of the Tropical Storm Center, more discrete storms
    have developed within a broad confluence zone ahead of the
    stratiform rain region, where temperatures have warmed into the 80s
    F, with MLCAPE reaching 500-1000 J/kg. These storms are progressing
    within an environment characterized by a weak vertical shear
    profile. As such, the overall tornado threat is expected to remain
    low, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out within this regime
    as well. The threat is expected to persist to 00Z, when Tornado
    Watch 342 expires, at which point conditions will be monitored for a
    new Tornado Watch.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pze_94Xfz_rc8_Nmlcn_Ts6Y7Rv9tyVV51YWzMFVPH24r93f3jJuDDZpjOpv8lsCsFCGdBSh$=
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    LAT...LON 30328294 31428282 32268287 32618275 32938228 33028150
    32838085 32558050 32428046 31858080 31008111 30358121
    30008129 29788149 30048235 30328294=20

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