Mesoscale Discussion 1185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021
Areas affected...portions of far northeast Florida into southeast
Georgia and far southern South Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 342...
Valid 072047Z - 072245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 342 continues.
SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remains possible with a primary
rain-band near the center of Elsa, and with more isolated
thunderstorms ahead of the Tropical Storm. An additional tornado
watch may be needed for South Carolina later this evening.
DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Elsa is located near the
FL/GA border, and is gradually drifting northeast along the Atlantic
Coastline. A convective rain-band, supporting occasional lightning
strikes, has been noted along a line from Ware County, GA to St.
Johns County, FL, with some confluence and occasional instances of
brief low-level rotation noted. However, this band is surrounded by
a broader region of stratiform precipitation, where temperatures are
struggling to reach or sustain above the mid 70s F, inhibiting
appreciable instability. As such, robust updrafts capable of
producing tornadoes are expected to remain quite sparse, though a
brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.=20
Farther northeast of the Tropical Storm Center, more discrete storms
have developed within a broad confluence zone ahead of the
stratiform rain region, where temperatures have warmed into the 80s
F, with MLCAPE reaching 500-1000 J/kg. These storms are progressing
within an environment characterized by a weak vertical shear
profile. As such, the overall tornado threat is expected to remain
low, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out within this regime
as well. The threat is expected to persist to 00Z, when Tornado
Watch 342 expires, at which point conditions will be monitored for a
new Tornado Watch.
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