• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1181

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 19:02:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071902=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-072030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1181
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northern IL...far southern WI...northwest
    IN...southeast IA...northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071902Z - 072030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will
    remain possible this afternoon, with damaging winds the primary
    hazard. A watch is not anticipated considering the expected
    isolated nature of the risk, but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along a cold front
    extending from near the IL/WI border southwest across northwest MO
    as of 1845z, with additional development also noted along a lake
    breeze boundary near the southern tip of Lake Michigan. A small
    cluster/line segment near the IL/WI border was moving along the
    front and has previously exhibited low-level rotation. MLCAPE of
    1000-1500 J/kg is in place, along with effective shear less than 25
    kts (locally near 35 kts along the IL/WI border). Modest frontal
    forcing, resulting from veered flow in advance of the front, should
    tend to limit overall coverage of the severe risk, with the
    strongest cells capable of damaging gusts. In the short term,
    storms moving along the front over far northern IL may continue to
    exhibit occasional rotation while moving east towards the lake
    shore.=20

    A watch is not currently expected, but observational trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!puQinfMOJtpHEnX1REKmxPFkDL02WcdR1Jul3PVcLvj_dul9WX8H9ViVJwaGCuQg6rF3M2CF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40829193 42478923 42928895 42528789 42048760 42218651
    42048628 41498621 40988648 40518682 40308937 40079163
    40469196 40829193=20



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