• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1180

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 17:50:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071750
    SPC MCD 071750=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1180
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast PA...southeast NY...southern VT...MA...CT...RI...northern NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 071750Z - 071945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and
    be capable of damaging downburst winds and isolated instances of
    large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis showed a stationary front
    extending from near the MA/NH border west to near the eastern tip of
    Lake Erie. Strong diabatic heating of a very moist (upper 60s-lower
    70s surface dew points) air mass continues south of the front,
    contributing to MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. The discussion
    area is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly
    flow, and this will contribute to effective shear values ranging
    from 25-35 kts. Largely southwest/west flow in the low-mid levels
    will support multicells and clusters as the primary modes. Steep
    low-level lapse rates and a very moist environment will support
    damaging downburst winds as the primary hazard, especially as storm coverage/clustering increases later this afternoon. A few instances
    of large hail will be possible, especially with the strongest
    multicell updrafts.

    Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch is likely prior to 1830z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u_8kOpK9rzpJmLeN7TLv6p-SoizTYL0qepVJbramx9OpGVKdsytrsuTA3bwE2krq-L85EJ0P$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40277387 40427529 41907582 42967525 43177329 42997223
    42627121 41797112 41287127 40277387=20

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