• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1178

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 16:08:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071608
    SPC MCD 071607=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1178
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1107 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...northern OH...northeast IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 071607Z - 071730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this
    afternoon, with clusters of strong/severe storms posing a risk for
    primarily damaging winds. A few instances of hail will also be
    possible. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z.

    DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating continues south of an east-west
    stationary front, a segment of which extends from southern Ontario
    Province to southern lower MI and southeast IA. With minimal MLCIN
    and moderate/pockets of strong instability developing by early-mid
    afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next few
    hours and move generally east. Effective shear values across the
    area will average 20 and 30 kts, supporting primarily a
    multicellular/cluster storm mode. Steep low-level lapse rates and a
    very moist environment will result in a risk for damaging downburst
    winds with storms and clusters this afternoon. Although weak
    mid-level lapse rates and modest effective shear will limit large
    hail potential, isolated stronger updrafts may produce instances of
    severe hail.

    Observational trends will be monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch will likely be needed by 18z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uBZivIN-zzBGXRUAof4XDj2Pwtvo_h_IkUYdRTIU7gnIM08nFyIEIsQ_sh7hdLrtlz3Ghzyu$=
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    LAT...LON 42388535 42768387 42538281 42228317 41878315 41648260
    42018176 42188137 42108066 41238058 40558073 40238149
    40308281 40448411 40578514 41018575 41658589 42388535=20

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