Mesoscale Discussion 1177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021
Areas affected...North FL Peninsula...southeast GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 341...
Valid 071430Z - 071630Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 341 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes continues in association with
Tropical Storm Elsa.
DISCUSSION...At 1420z Tropical Storm Elsa was located just offshore
of the FL coast northwest of Cedar Key. A large area of rain
east/northeast of the center covered much of north FL, however
latest reflectivity data from KJAX shows a pronounced outer band
lifting north/northwest just north of the GA/FL border with recent
transient rotation, and more discrete cells/showers also over
southeast GA producing occasional short-lived low-level rotation.=20
Modifying the latest KJAX VAD for observed storm motion from the
southeast results in ESRH at or below 50 m2/s2, however latest RAP
forecast soundings suggest increasing ESRH values over the next few
hours as low-level winds increase as Elsa continues moving north.=20 Correspondingly, the risk for brief tornadoes may also increase over
the next few hours.
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