• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1177

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 14:30:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071430
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071430=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-071630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1177
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

    Areas affected...North FL Peninsula...southeast GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 341...

    Valid 071430Z - 071630Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 341 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes continues in association with
    Tropical Storm Elsa.

    DISCUSSION...At 1420z Tropical Storm Elsa was located just offshore
    of the FL coast northwest of Cedar Key. A large area of rain
    east/northeast of the center covered much of north FL, however
    latest reflectivity data from KJAX shows a pronounced outer band
    lifting north/northwest just north of the GA/FL border with recent
    transient rotation, and more discrete cells/showers also over
    southeast GA producing occasional short-lived low-level rotation.=20
    Modifying the latest KJAX VAD for observed storm motion from the
    southeast results in ESRH at or below 50 m2/s2, however latest RAP
    forecast soundings suggest increasing ESRH values over the next few
    hours as low-level winds increase as Elsa continues moving north.=20 Correspondingly, the risk for brief tornadoes may also increase over
    the next few hours.

    ..Bunting.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ueUYzVBVTENCrhQgR2rTxB0vqRXEX6YQUIKp9_PjxxOyUWahWZrb5OLWFuOwQLmXQhADGlO5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30018145 29908228 29978309 30278321 30968296 31398262
    31708203 31748189 31568154 31278136 30158136 30018145=20



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