• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1172

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 03:59:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070359
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070359=20
    FLZ000-070600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1172
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the west central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 340...

    Valid 070359Z - 070600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 340 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes could
    still increase through about 1-3 AM EDT, primarily inland of coastal
    areas, near and southeast through north of the Greater Tampa area.

    DISCUSSION...After enlarging with short-lived earlier
    intensification of Elsa, low-level hodographs have shrunk some in
    the Tampa VWP. However, they remain sizable, with clockwise
    curvature and appear favorable to strengthening low-level
    mesocyclone development in the more vigorous convection. Still,
    though, rain-cooled, relatively stable boundary layer air remains a
    mitigating factor around and south-southeast of the Greater Tampa
    area.

    Boundary-layer temperatures and dew points have risen several
    degrees from late afternoon minima across the interior peninsula,
    and it is possible that recovery northwestward toward the west
    central coastal areas, and the offshore low-level circulation center
    will continue during the next few hours. While it appears that this
    may coincide with weakening of the jet core around 850 mb, as it
    propagates up coastal areas across and north of Tampa, there may be
    a window of opportunity for strengthening low-level mesocyclones
    capable of producing tornadoes through 1-3 AM EDT.

    ..Kerr.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p9tQk_LBoHnfOjOR8lWDAcivIHImya2A_Dl1jq1y1R__RtmeyDnZjF9vhGySmbI3swuCDnYg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27138212 27988276 28358229 27448147 26818162 26848199
    27138212=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 05:06:59 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1625634424-59769-3999
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 070359
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070359=20
    FLZ000-070600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1172
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1059 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the west central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 340...

    Valid 070359Z - 070600Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 340 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes could
    still increase through about 1-3 AM EDT, primarily inland of coastal
    areas, near and southeast through north of the Greater Tampa area.

    DISCUSSION...After enlarging with short-lived earlier
    intensification of Elsa, low-level hodographs have shrunk some in
    the Tampa VWP. However, they remain sizable, with clockwise
    curvature and appear favorable to strengthening low-level
    mesocyclone development in the more vigorous convection. Still,
    though, rain-cooled, relatively stable boundary layer air remains a
    mitigating factor around and south-southeast of the Greater Tampa
    area.

    Boundary-layer temperatures and dew points have risen several
    degrees from late afternoon minima across the interior peninsula,
    and it is possible that recovery northwestward toward the west
    central coastal areas, and the offshore low-level circulation center
    will continue during the next few hours. While it appears that this
    may coincide with weakening of the jet core around 850 mb, as it
    propagates up coastal areas across and north of Tampa, there may be
    a window of opportunity for strengthening low-level mesocyclones
    capable of producing tornadoes through 1-3 AM EDT.

    ..Kerr.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sQ7zs_iv6EPPnhBnHAGcqV5EyKZ_X4QHo7wVaxcsKqNdyu0YdVuuuUAugMFBK3FtaJn6AE7U$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27138212 27988276 28358229 27448147 26818162 26848199
    27138212=20



    ------------=_1625634424-59769-3999
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    = = =
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