• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1171

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 7 01:01:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070101
    SPC MCD 070100=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1171
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and central

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

    Valid 070100Z - 070300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat may persist through roughly
    10 PM CDT, but a gradual weakening trend will continue through the
    evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Small convective clusters continue to propagate
    eastward along the surface stationary front within WW 338. Although
    a few outflow surges have moved off to the south of the front, weak
    forcing for ascent has resulted in only isolated, and generally
    transient, cells. Diabatic cooling due to training precipitation
    along the front has begun to degrade mixed-layer instability and
    reduce low-level lapse rates, suggesting a gradual decline in the
    overall severe threat. Despite these trends, a few wind damage
    reports and near-severe wind gusts have been noted in the past hour,
    and regional VWPs still show 30-40 knots of 0-6/7 km bulk shear over
    the region. Although instability has begun to wane, it should
    remains sufficient for sustained convection in the near term -
    particularly along the southern periphery of ongoing storms where
    higher theta-e air continues to flow north near the surface. The
    onset of diurnal cooling over the next 1-2 hours will continue the
    gradual weakening trend, but an isolated severe/damaging wind gust
    will remain possible in the near term given the residual CAPE/shear

    ..Moore.. 07/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rbtcJBdgAoWJ2Bbf7dqTmVWdGbzm26I8dTdF6mLU47to1IxoPEKNQAc-PDSp45lITcuoQ-DF$=
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    LAT...LON 43259411 43989354 44379171 44599007 44538874 44558774
    44308749 43798746 43438765 43478831 43498939 43399068
    43229223 43079352 43259411=20

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