• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1169

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 23:18:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062317=20
    FLZ000-070215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1169
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Florida coastal areas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 337...

    Valid 062317Z - 070215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 337 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes still
    appears relatively low in the near term, but might begin to increase
    near or just inland of coastal areas between Naples and Sarasota by
    around 10 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...A sizable pool of rain-cooled, relatively stable
    boundary-layer air remains evident in surface observational data and
    objective instability analyses, to the northeast and east of the
    circulation center of Elsa. This encompasses much of the central
    and southern Florida Peninsula, where low-level hodographs,
    particularly near southwestern coastal areas, may be characterized
    by large speed shear, but clockwise curvature might not be optimal
    for tornadic development.

    However, over the course of the next few hours (through the 02-04Z
    time frame), the last Rapid Refresh suggests that stronger flow
    around the 850 mb level may gradually veer from an
    east-southeasterly component to an increasingly southerly component
    along coastal areas between Naples and Sarasota. This probably will
    be accompanied by low-level moistening and warming supportive of
    increasing boundary-layer destabilization, and perhaps a developing
    band of intensifying convection. While there is spread evident
    among the various model forecast soundings, it appears that this
    could also coincide with enlarging low-level hodographs supportive
    of strengthening low-level mesocyclones capable of producing
    tornadoes.

    ..Kerr.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sZjQ8FNDQwmvTPVPDn8zUEAJh0PzUwBzuWxJ2NOY0dS94pHaAFOrMH44im4ZSmMnzqF9ez1h$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27108234 26958159 26168129 25588184 25888198 26758244
    27108234=20



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