Mesoscale Discussion 1169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Florida coastal areas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 337...
Valid 062317Z - 070215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 337 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes still
appears relatively low in the near term, but might begin to increase
near or just inland of coastal areas between Naples and Sarasota by
around 10 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...A sizable pool of rain-cooled, relatively stable
boundary-layer air remains evident in surface observational data and
objective instability analyses, to the northeast and east of the
circulation center of Elsa. This encompasses much of the central
and southern Florida Peninsula, where low-level hodographs,
particularly near southwestern coastal areas, may be characterized
by large speed shear, but clockwise curvature might not be optimal
for tornadic development.
However, over the course of the next few hours (through the 02-04Z
time frame), the last Rapid Refresh suggests that stronger flow
around the 850 mb level may gradually veer from an
east-southeasterly component to an increasingly southerly component
along coastal areas between Naples and Sarasota. This probably will
be accompanied by low-level moistening and warming supportive of
increasing boundary-layer destabilization, and perhaps a developing
band of intensifying convection. While there is spread evident
among the various model forecast soundings, it appears that this
could also coincide with enlarging low-level hodographs supportive
of strengthening low-level mesocyclones capable of producing
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