• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1168

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 22:23:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062223
    SPC MCD 062222=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1168
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota and central

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

    Valid 062222Z - 070015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind, and perhaps a few instances of hail,
    remain possible across WW 338 for the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Storms that have developed along the surface front over
    the past 2 hours have evolved from semi-discrete storms to mainly
    convective clusters - largely due to mean flow oriented along the
    initiating boundary. This has limited the potential for robust,
    long-lived cell organization over the past hour, and the severe hail
    threat has correspondingly diminished. However, damaging winds as
    well as measured 60+ mph winds have been recently reported,
    indicating that severe winds remain a concern. Overall, the
    environment along and south of the broken line of storms across
    southern portions of WW 338 remains favorable for strong downdrafts
    with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE overlapping an area with 7-8 C/km
    low-level lapse rates. The greatest severe wind risk will likely
    reside across central WI where the best instability/low-level lapse
    rates are co-located and nearby clusters have displayed periods of
    organized linear structure. Convection may gradually spread
    southward into this environment along outflows and/or the sagging
    surface front, but the southern extent of storm coverage is somewhat
    uncertain given the mean zonal flow. Additionally, convection moving
    eastward across Lake Michigan may reach the western shores of lower
    MI within the next hour. Supportive instability across lower MI may
    allow for some storm intensification, but weaker deep-layer shear
    should limit the overall severe threat.

    ..Moore.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rbPZdB8sApC5xYxDfDVyb2i_v2vsAGcbSuIqSkIwZ7on5PsSXTdGWibjEDhuKNe3dzapRrLu$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43469656 43959547 44089354 44369162 44529000 44498910
    44158802 43698774 43198776 42728840 42989002 43079148
    42949351 42829477 42759561 42649605 42929654 43469656=20

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